Euro Football

This smart xG treble comes out just over 10/1

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Sunday, 15:00 GMT

Getafe moved themselves up to a lofty fifth place in La Liga with a convincing 3-0 victory at Leganés last weekend, limiting the strugglers to almost nothing in attack (xG: LEG 0.42 – 1.63 GET).

In their last home fixture, Getafe were unfortunate to be beaten so heavily by Real Madrid, going toe-to-toe with the giants for much of the match and causing them plenty of problems at the back.

Despite the 3-0 defeat, the performance demonstrated how strong Getafe are at home. Their underlying numbers at the Coliseum are impressive too, averaging 1.50 expected goals for (xGF) and 1.08 against (xGA) per game this season.

After a disappointing start to the season, Real Betis look to have hit form, losing just one of their last seven league games. They hammered Real Sociedad last Sunday, recording a justified 3-0 win based on chances created (xG: BET 2.07 – 0.35 SOC).

The Verdiblancos are a completely different entity away from home, winning just one game on the road and posting the worst expected goal difference (xGD) per game in the entire league this season (-1.32 xGD per game).

The Infogol model forecasts a 53% chance of a home win, so the 10/11 on offer should be backed.

Selection – Back Getafe to win @ 10/11

Sunday, 17:00 GMT

Arguably the biggest game across Europe this weekend, as the third and fourth placed teams in the league face-off in the Rome derby.

Roma bounced back to form in Serie A last weekend, recording a decisive 3-1 away win against Genoa (xG: GEN 1.34 – 2.22 ROM) to lift them into a Champions League qualification spot.

That performance once again displayed Roma’s undoubted quality going forward. They are averaging 2.08 xGF per game in Serie A this season, which rises to 2.61 when playing at the Stadio Olimpico.

An exceptionally impressive 5-1 win at home to Sampdoria (xG: LAZ 4.29 – 0.71 SAM) last weekend saw Lazio extend their Serie A win streak to an incredible 11 games.

That run of form has seen the Eagles soar into a clear third place in the table, just six points behind leaders Juventus with a game in hand.

Although they sit comfortably above their city rivals, Lazio’s underlying process is very similar to Roma’s, creating chances equating to 2.11 xGF per game, while allowing 1.24 xGA per game.

A fiercely tight derby is expected, but Infogol’s model thinks there is tremendous value in backing an offensively dangerous Roma side to win this game. We think the Giallorossi have a 47% chance of gaining three points, making the 7/4 of huge interest.

Selection – Back Roma to win @ 7/4

Sunday, 20:00 GMT

Lille have slipped to fifth place in Ligue 1 after deserved away defeats against Monaco (xG: MON 2.90 – 0.57 LIL) and Dijon (xG: DIJ 1.18 – 0.53 LIL).

They were unusually quiet in attack in those games, but they return home here, where they average 1.94 xGF per game. They face an uphill task against a dominant PSG side.

Bizarrely, PSG have faced Monaco in both of their last two league fixtures, collecting four points (3-3 draw and 4-2 win). They were much superior in those games, seemingly creating good chances at will.

Thomas Tuchel’s side have looked mighty in attack all season, scoring 50 goals in just 20 games (2.50 per game), but the Parisiens should have scored even more according to expected goals, registering a massive 61.6 xGF (3.08 per game) in Ligue 1 this season.

Goals are expected in this match-up, and Infogol’s model believes there is a small amount of value in backing over 3.5 goals in this match at 2.26 (44%) on the Betfair Exchange, giving a 45% chance (2.22) of that outcome.

Selection – Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 6/5

Picks Summary

A treble on these selections returns £/€11.55 including stake on pp.com. Odds correct at time of posting, subject to change.

Find a full range of odds from Spain, Italy and France over on paddypower.com




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